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Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much?Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the long-run?Quantitatively, while the lower bound has a sizable effect on the distribution of future interest rates, its impact on forecast densities for inflation is relatively modest. In contrast, during episodes of stagnant growth in bank lending from advanced to emerging economies, the relationship between the federal funds rate and bank lending is negative, mainly due to the monetary policy stance component of the federal funds rate.

At times, they are initiated by relatively small shocks.

During such episodes, intermediaries expand their lending and leverage, thereby building up financial fragility.

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